Dinosaur
extinction has always excited the imagination – what forces could possibly
account for the disappearance of such a dominant and charismatic group? More
than 100 different theories have been published to account for the extinction,
ranging from the interference of meddling aliens, to collisions between the
Earth and roving lumps of galactic antimatter and the possibility of some
malign dinosaur pandemic flu. Almost all of these theories have been shown to
be lacking in evidence (or just plain crazy). However, several events at the
end of the Cretaceous Period have stood the test of scientific scrutiny. These
are: the impact of a large meteorite (around 10 km in diameter); the climatic
effects of the extensive volcanic eruptions that formed the stacked lavas of
the Deccan Traps in India; and a series of more general, long-term global
environmental changes, including sea-level rises and climatic shifts. Recently,
a multi-disciplinary team reviewed the evidence for the asteroid impact,
concluding that the timing of the impact, whose crater is centered on the small
town of Chicxulub on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, was the perfect smoking gun
to drive the extinction (Schulter et al.
2010). However, dissenting voices (my own included) were quick to reply, noting
that the longer-term effects of volcanism and environmental change might have
been largely to blame (Archibald et al.
2010).
In
order to get a fresh perspective on what happened to the dinosaurs, my
colleagues Steve Brusatte and Richard Butler assembled a team of
palaeontologists to re-examine the final stages of dinosaur evolution.
Together, we took a cold, hard look at the diversity of Late Cretaceous
dinosaurs during the last 20 million years of their reign, reanalysing the most
recent data on dinosaur distributions and combining this with the latest
information on climatic conditions and the timing of Deccan volcanism and the
Chixuclub impact. There was much discussion and debate within the team until a
consensus emerged: the end result of these deliberations was published online
today in the journal Biological Reviews (Brusatte
et al. 2014).
Our
new analyses find little support for long-term declines in dinosaur diversity
and abundance in the lead-up to the extinction. Some herbivore groups in North
America were suffering slightly, but this pattern was not repeated in other
areas of the world. Instead, the extinction appears to have been geologically
abrupt: an observation that rules out the more gradual declines predicted by
extinction models reliant on slower mechanisms of global change. Moreover, the
major pulses of Deccan volcanism do not correlate well with this sudden
extinction. Consequently, we concluded that the abrupt global extinction of so
many dinosaur lineages coincided best, and was most consistent with, the Chicxulub
impact. Nevertheless, the stressed herbivore populations in North America may
be hinting at the fact that at least some dinosaurs were under environmental
strain prior to the impact. It seems reasonable to propose that longer-term
mechanisms might have adversely affected at least some dinosaurs, making them
more vulnerable to the cataclysmic effects of the impact.
It’s
interesting to speculate what might have happened if the asteroid had not hit
at this precise moment in time. Dinosaurs were successful and diverse,
exploiting a wide range of niches from pole-to-pole. Although re-imagining
historical events is always risky, it seems reasonable to speculate that had
the asteroid arrived at a time when dinosaurs weren’t already stressed then
some of them might have survived and even prospered until the present. Of
course, it can be argued that this particular experiment has already been run –
birds are nothing more than feathered, flying dwarf dinosaurs and are far more
diverse than their extinct relatives. It could even be argued that the asteroid
was just a blip in dinosaur evolution rather than a catastrophe: after all, the
explosive radiation of avian dinosaurs was largely a post-impact event, even if
the extinction took out all of their larger (and I’d suggest more exciting)
non-avian relatives.
Archibald,
J. D. et al. 2010. Cretaceous
extinctions: multiple causes. Science
328, 973.
Brusatte,
S. L. et al. 2014. The extinction of
the dinosaurs. Biological Reviews. doi:10.1111/brv.12128
Schulte, P. et al. 2010. The Chicxulub asteroid impact and mass extinction at
the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. Science
327, 1214–1218. doi; 10.1126/science.1177265